Gun Owners’ Non-Votes

Let’s start with a fact: there is no doubt that the New York Democrat Party is rabidly anti- 2nd Amendment, and especially the NY Democrat governors.  Based on their 2A positions, Democrat candidates are not attractive to gun owners.

There is no generally accepted count of gun owners.  A few years ago, estimates of gun owners in NY State generally ranged from 4.0 million to 5.5 million.  With the surge in gun purchases since Biden became President, it’s reasonable to guess that the numbers now range from 4.5 million to 6 million.* 

Let’s use 5 million gun owners in NY State as a conservative estimate for this exercise.

Nationwide surveys have determined that about two-thirds of the people eligible to vote actually do vote on a regular basis.  That’s not just eligible registered voters but all possible eligible voters, registered or not.

If NY gun owners voted in the same percentages as the general public, 3.3 million would vote regularly. Two thirds of the 5 million gun owners is 3.3 million. 

SCOPE estimates that about 1.8 million gun owners vote regularly. 

1.8 million gun owners vote while 3.3 million should vote.  The difference is 1.5 million gun owners sitting on the sidelines.

Not all gun owners vote Republican / Conservative.  Let’s say 75% ** of gun owners vote Republican / Conservative.  

If those 1.5 million non-voters had voted 75% Republican / Conservative, that would have been a net gain of 50%, which is 750 thousand*** Republican / Conservative votes. 

Kathy Hochul won in 2022 by less than 400 thousand votes.

Andrew Cuomo won in 2014 by just over 500 thousand votes.

Think about that.  If gun owners had voted only at national averages, there would be no Kathy Hochul today and no Andrew Cuomo after 2014.

Lower the split to 70% Republican/Conservative and 30% Democrat and you net a gain of 600 thousand votes. Still enough to eliminate Hochul and Cuomo.

How do we get 1.5 million gun owners off the sideline and into the voting booth?

Notes:

* A May 11, 2024 article in Gun Zone said: “According to recent estimates, there are approximately 5.2 million gun owners in New York State.”

** Why use 75%? 

75% of 1.8 million 1.35 million.  In recent NY Governor and Presidential elections, the 1.35 million would range from half to way-more-than-half of the total Republican / Conservative votes.  Unless you believe that gun owners are the only ones voting Republican / Conservative, 1.35 million is reasonable. 

Other studies have shown 30% to 50% of gun owners vote, depending on state.  1.8 million is 36% of 5 million so it is in line. 

And usually, more than 75% of statewide Republican / Conservative votes come from Upstate NY, which is where the Republican / Conservative strength is located.

*** 75% R/C votes minus 25% Democrat votes nets a 50% gain in Republican / Conservative votes.  50% of the 1.5 million who didn’t vote is 750 thousand.