Operation Demoralize

Cornell Professor William Jacobson wrote in Legal Insurrection:

A couple of weeks ago, I spoke to you about Operation Demoralize.

It’s something we’ve been tracking at Legal Insurrection since 2011 and what it is, it is a concerted effort every presidential election to suppress Republican votes by creating a narrative that it’s over. There’s nothing you can do. The momentum is with the Democrat. It’s already been written, the result.

And we know that’s not true. People are falling for it again. Now I see it all over the internet. I see it in my inbox, I see it in comments, I see it everywhere.

I just want to give you a little bit of historical perspective. On this date. August 14th, according to the Real Clear Politics national polling average, and that’s important, it’s the national average, Kamala Harris is up 1.1%. Oh my God, the sky is falling. It’s over.

By comparison on this date in 2020, Joe Biden was up by 7.7% in the same Real Clear Politics average, and on this date in 2016, Hillary was up 6.8%.

That’s the historical record. That doesn’t mean people shouldn’t be concerned. That doesn’t mean people can’t do better. That doesn’t mean really anything other than you are being played.

Polling at this time in the year is junk Polling at this time in the year predicts nothing, and you should ignore it. Now you can’t ignore it because it’s all over the place. People are constantly citing the latest poll. What I’m telling you is this is Operation Demoralize.

This is going to be a close election just like it was in 2016 and just like it was in 2020. It’s going to be 30 or 50,000 votes in this state and 20,000 votes in that state. And we’re really fighting over a handful of states for who’s going to be president, and turnout is going to be critical. It doesn’t matter if Democrats win California by 5 million votes, that’s irrelevant. What matters is Pennsylvania and Michigan, and Georgia and Arizona, and two or three other states.

And to the extent the media is able to convince you that it is all over and there’s nothing you can do, that is not in your interest as a voter.

So what I’m saying to you is: We are still in Operation Demoralize. It’s working just like it does every summer that we’ve tracked it. Shake out of it and get yourself together. There are legitimate concerns that people need to address, but this hyperbole and this hair-on-fire reaction is ridiculous. So, carry on.

And it isn’t just Jacobson saying these things.

CNN’s Harry Enten issued a warning that Donald Trump is still very much in the presidential race.

Enten said, “We put out those poll numbers yesterday…all of which showed Kamala Harris with clear momentum and enthusiasm potentially on her side. But I just want to take a step back and sort of point out we’ve kind of been here before. So, August 13, how far were the polls off in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — and this is in 2016 and 2020 — Trump was under estimated both times around and by significant margins. Take a look here, in 2016 the average poll in those states they mentioned, those Great Lakes battleground states, Trump was underestimated by nine points on average at this point in 2016. How about 2020? It wasn’t a one off, look at this: He was underestimated by five points on average.”

“And of course Kamala Harris’s advantage in those New York Times-Siena College polls were four points in each of these key battleground states: Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin. The bottom line is this: If you have any idea- if you’re a Kamala Harris fan and you want to rip open the champagne bottle, pop that cork, do not do it…If we have a polling shift like we’ve seen in prior years, from now until the final result, Donald Trump would actually win.”

And as to the ‘enthusiasm’ that he mentioned, Enten also pointed out that polling actually shows that Republicans are slightly more likely and Democrats are slightly less likely to say they will go to the polls than they were a few months ago.