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  • 09/15/2022 10:55 AM | Anonymous

    Important Election Deadlines!

    October 14, 2022:  Deadline to register to vote online, by mail, or in person at the local election office.   REGISTER TO VOTE NOW

    October 24, 2022:  Deadline to Request an Absentee Ballot Online or By Mail.    REQUEST AN ABSENTEE BALLOT

    October 29, 2022 - November 7, 2022:  Early Voting Period

    FIND YOUR EARLY VOTING LOCATION 
    FIND YOUR POLLING PLACE

    November 7, 2022:  Last day to apply IN-PERSON for an absentee ballot

    November 8, 2022:  ELECTION DAY  Deadline to Return Absentee Ballot.

  • 09/14/2022 2:38 PM | Anonymous

    An OP Ed by Tom Reynolds which appeared in last Sunday's Elmira Star Gazette and will appear in the future in the The Fingerlakes Times.

    The first legal challenge to Governor Hochul’s new gun control laws was dismissed on technicalities, allowing the Concealed Carry Improvement Act (CCIA), to go into effect.

    The CCIA bans all guns in approximately ninety percent of NY State, as "sensitive" places, and imposes strict new concealed carry permit restrictions similar to - or worse than - those that were recently struck down by the Supreme Court.  Judge Suddaby’s decision questioned the constitutionality of New York's CCIA - even calling it legally "doomed" - but ruled that he had no power to overturn the gun control measures because of technicalities in the lawsuit. 

    The judge warned that numerous parts of the law were likely unconstitutional and could be challenged again in the future.  These all appeared to violate a law-abiding citizen’s constitutional right to carry a gun.

    The law’s vague requirement of "good moral character" is fatally similar to the NY carry-permit application language that the Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional.

    The insistence that a gun could only be used "in a manner that does not endanger oneself or others" ignores what guns are all about.  "The very act of using a firearm in self-defense against another person necessarily involves threatening, if not actually causing, danger to that other person," the Judge noted.  The law "literally does not permit one to use a firearm in self-defense" and is therefore "conditioned on a logical impossibility…and "doomed" to be struck down.

    In regards to the disclosure of social media accounts, such a requirement could endanger a law-abiding citizen’s First Amendment right to free speech and Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. In no situation should a citizen be required to surrender one constitutional right in order to assert another. Therefore, someone should not risk losing First or Fifth Amendment protections in order to enjoy their Second Amendment rights.

    The judge found fault with the state’s extensive list of gun-free zones and the part of the law that banned guns on private property without permission. The list of banned locations was so extensive as to be “almost limitless.”  And the presumptive ban on private property was not consistent with the nation’s history of firearm regulation.

    Nevertheless, after 24 pages of describing why he believed the law was unconstitutional, Suddaby concluded his decision by noting that he didn’t think he could do anything about it - right now.  (It appears that someone will have to be arrested for violating the CCIA in order to give Judge Suddaby the opportunity to move against the law.)

    In responding to the decision, neither Hochul nor Attorney General Letitia James addressed the fact that the Judge labeled parts of the law as unconstitutional and it only a technicality saved it. 

    This continues the left’s strategy of passing unconstitutional laws and daring anyone to sue them.  Hochul and James defend the laws on the taxpayer’s dime while plaintiffs must pay thousands of dollars to sue NY State.

    Both Kathy Hochul and Letitia James are running for reelection in November.

  • 09/12/2022 8:52 PM | Anonymous

    Another Limitation of 2nd Amendment Rights  Henry Kramer 

    Second Amendment Rights are now under assault from components of the private sector.  Visa, Mastercard, and American Express announced they will set up separate merchant transaction codes for gun purchases.  These codes will make it easier to track who has exercised their second amendment rights and purchased firearms. The new credit card company regulations can be viewed as a potential impairment of gun owner rights as many purchases are made with plastic, not checks or cash

    Keep in mind that private sector companies are not bound, as the U.S. government is, to observe constitutional liberties.  However, government has been known to “push the envelope” to influence private companies into doing things that the government is forbidden from doing, as in the recent revelations about the FBI influencing Facebook about Hunter Biden’s “Computer from Hell”.

    The Constitution is a series of limitations only on government.  The government acts on individuals and the private sector through statutory enactment.  So, the recent SCOTUS decision in Bruen protecting Second Amendment rights does not legally limit what credit card companies may or may not do in regards to merchant classifications.

    By what right do credit card companies make gun purchases different from other purchases?  Attorneys-General in a number of states have recently warned private sector companies pursuing social and political objectives that the primary fiduciary duty of the members of their boards of directors is to the stockholders to bring in return on investment.  Being “woke” does not supersede their fiduciary duties.  Failure to do so may make directors personally liable to stockholders.

    Gun owners and non-owners who support second amendment rights to protect all constitutional rights may wish to write to Visa, Mastercard, and American Express - and to the banks that issue them - that they may cancel these cards if the card issuers discriminate against second amendment rights.

    Most importantly, in the upcoming November elections they may wish to vote against candidates who support violating the spirit of SCOTUS’s Bruen decision that bolstered second amendment rights.  The private sector should not be trying to impose limitations that the public sector is barred now from implementing.

  • 09/11/2022 2:56 PM | Anonymous

    Gov. Hochul Wrong on Defensive Use of Guns

    Given how infrequently the news media covers defensive gun uses, it isn’t surprising that Gov. Hochul believes that defensive gun uses are rare. But survey estimates show on average that Americans use guns defensively about 2 million times a year. According to academic estimates, defensive gun uses – including instances when guns are simply shown to deter a crime – are four to five times more common than gun crimes.

    Hochul also worries about permit holders themselves committing crime, but her fears are misplaced. New York doesn’t provide data on the rate at which permit holders have their permits revoked, but we do have that data for other states. In the 19 states with comprehensive data, the average revocation rate for any reason is one-tenth of 1%. Typically, permit revocations occur because someone moved, died, or forgot to bring a permit while carrying. In Florida and Texas, permit holders are convicted of firearms-related violations at one-twelfth the rate of police officers

    The governor might also be surprised to learn that the general public disagrees with her. An early July survey by the Trafalgar Group showed a plurality of American general election voters believe that armed citizens are the most effective element in protecting you and your family in the case of a mass shooting. First on the list was “armed citizens” at 42%, followed by “local police” (25%) and “federal agents” (10%).

    Police are essential to keeping the peace and bringing criminals to justice, but in most cases they can’t directly protect people. That’s why Gov. Hochul owes the residents of her state the chance to protect themselves.

  • 09/06/2022 12:38 PM | Anonymous

    Governor Hochul – “Commander General”, Secessionist?by Bob Sundius, S.C.O.P.E. Member

    Governor Hochul has unilaterally decided she has ultimate authority, superior to the Supreme Court of the United States (SCOTUS), and by implication its co-equal branches of the Federal Government.  As well, she has elevated herself above all the governors of the other 49 sovereign states comprising the federation which is the United States of America.

    The “Hochul Pistol Permit Restrictions ‘new Law’ (S.51001/A.41001) is titled: An act to amend the penal law, the general business law, the executive law, the civil practice law and rules and the state finance law, in relation to licensing and other provisions relating to firearms”. The Governor’s, July 1st, 2022 announcement claims it was: “… — drafted in close collaboration with the Legislature — is devised to align with the Supreme Court's recent decision in NYSRPA v. Bruen.”

    “… align with the Supreme Court's recent decision in NYSRPA v. Bruen”?  As the “blind man” said: “Let’s see.”

    Beyond the legal challenges already filed and the respectful approaches (begrudgingly) taken by other states affected, Hochul’s positioning of the “new Law” is obviously self-serving, inconsistent with and contradicts the “rulings” in the Bruen Opinion, or as Randy Barnett highlights in a recent post:

    Legislative acts that were not good-faith exercises of such powers were considered “pretended” legislation, and not truly a law. As John Marshall explained in McCulloch v. Maryland, “should Congress, under the pretext of executing its powers, pass laws for the accomplishment of objects not intrusted to the Government, it would become the painful duty of this tribunal … to say that such an act was not the law of the land.” (https://www.scotusblog.com/2022/06/a-minor-impact-on-gun-laws-but-a-potentially-momentous-shift-in-constitutional-method/)

    That this “new Law” passed without due process under another “message of necessity” is a manifestation of Hochul’s June 23rd, 2022 official statement: "In the wake of the Supreme Court's reckless and reprehensible decision on NYSRPA v. Bruen, … We are not powerless, and we will do everything in our power to protect New Yorkers."

    THE GOVERNOR’S ACTION IS IN CONTEMPTUOUS DEFIANCE OF SCOTUS’ OPINION, AND A DIRECT REJECTION OF THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT’S STRUCTURE – SCOTUS IS “THE SUPREME COURT” AND ITS DECISION ARE BINDING.

    As William Baude discusses ("The Judgment Power," 96 Georgetown Law Journal 1807 (2008).) “… at some point, a judgment does become final, and at that point it has a peculiar characteristic. It is legally binding, …”, and “… in the United States of America, the judicial power is a distinct, separate, independent, and co-ordinate branch of the government; expressly recognised as such … by the federal constitution, from which the courts of the United States derive all their powers. …”

    Governor Hochul has with her “new Law” rejected more than the New York residents’ rights enumerated and protected by the Second, Sixth and Fourteenth Amendments (among others) she has audaciously denied the “authority” and “power” of The Supreme Court of the United States and the finality of their “judgement” (i.e., until such time as SCOTUS, itself, modifies or reverses its Opinion, or the Constitution is amended).

    Is this a first step by Governor Hochul leading the NYS Legislature, with the “blessings of the swamp”, to advance a “coup d’état”, or secede from the Union?

    Consider asking your NYS Assemblyman, Senator and Governor about the above, and then demand that they repeal in its entirety the unlawful and unconstitutional “Hochul Pistol Permit Restrictions ‘new Law’” (S.51001/A.41001).


  • 09/02/2022 1:31 PM | Anonymous

    Round One  by Tom Reynolds

    Wednesday, the first legal challenge to Governor Hochul’s strict new gun control laws was dismissed on technicalities, allowing the Concealed Carry Improvement Act (CCIA), to go into effect September 1st, as planned.

    The CCIA bans all guns (not just handguns) in approximately ninety percent of New York State, as "sensitive" places, and imposes strict new concealed carry permit restrictions similar to - or worse than - those that were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court in June.  The federal judge’s 78-page decision questioned the constitutionality of New York's CCIA - even calling it legally "doomed" - and that it could be challenged again in the future.  But Chief U.S. District Judge Glenn Suddaby ruled that he had no power to overturn the gun control measures because of technicalities in the lawsuit

    The lawsuit began when, in response to Hochul’s move, two Virginia-based national gun lobbies, (the Gun Owners Foundation and the Gun Owners of America) joined with a Schenectady County gun owner named Ivan Antonyuk and filed suit against the law and argued that the CCIA is an illegal end-run around the Supreme Court. 

    As the law hadn’t gone into effect, Suddaby wrote that Antonyuk hadn’t been harmed (because he had not been subject to any prosecution). And the gun groups hadn’t shown they were actually harmed by the law, either, the judge added.  In addition, the defendant, State Police Superintendent Kevin Bruen, wasn’t actually the one in charge of carrying out many of the law’s provisions.  Based on those issues, a law was allowed to proceed that the judge labeled as likely unconstitutional.

    The judge warned that numerous parts of the law were likely unconstitutional and could be challenged again in the future: the state’s “good moral character” requirement; new laws requiring disclosure of social-media accounts; and the creation of an extensive list of gun-free zones.  These all appeared to violate a law-abiding citizen’s constitutional right to carry a gun.

    The vague requirement of "good moral character" is fatally similar to the New York carry-permit application language that the Supreme Court struck down as unconstitutional, Suddaby wrote.

    And the insistence that a gun could only be used "in a manner that does not endanger oneself or others" ignores what guns are all about.  "The very act of using a firearm in self-defense against another person necessarily involves threatening, if not actually causing, danger to that other person," Suddaby noted.  The law "literally does not permit one to use a firearm in self-defense" and is therefore "conditioned on a logical impossibility," he said, and "doomed" to be struck down.

    In regards to the disclosure of social media accounts, Suddaby said that such a requirement could endanger a law-abiding citizen’s First Amendment right to free speech. He also questioned whether such a disclosure could also violate someone’s Fifth Amendment right against self-incrimination. In no situation should a citizen be required to surrender one constitutional right in order to assert another, Suddaby wrote. Therefore, someone should not risk losing First or Fifth Amendment protections in order to enjoy their Second Amendment rights.

    Lastly, the judge found fault with the state’s extensive list of gun-free zones and the part of the law that banned guns on private property without permission. The list of banned locations was so extensive as to be “almost limitless.”  And the presumptive ban on private property was not consistent with the nation’s history of firearm regulation, he ruled.

    Nevertheless, after 24 pages of describing why he believed the law was unconstitutional, Suddaby concluded his decision by noting that he didn’t think he could do anything about it, right now.  (It appears that someone will have to be arrested for violating the CCIA in order to give Judge Suddaby the opportunity to move against the law.)

    In defending her laws, Hochul was quoted by Fox News as saying, This whole concept that a good guy with a gun will stop the bad guys with a gun, it doesn’t hold up. And the data bears this out, so that theory is over.”  Oh really!  Let’s show that data to Elisjsha Dicken, a 22-year-old concealed carrier who stopped a mass shooter in Indiana’s Greenwood Park Mall on July 17.  It seems she has not read the Center for Disease Control sponsored report that estimates that a gun is used 496,000 times a year to stop an intruder in a home.  (Obviously, not on Hochul’s reading list.)

    In responding to the decision, neither Hochul nor Attorney General Letitia James addressed the fact that the Judge labeled parts of the law as unconstitutional and it was only a technicality that saved it.  Suddaby’s decision is subject to appeal.

    This case is not the only one challenging Hochul’s gun control scheme.  On Wednesday, the New York State Rifle and Pistol Association filed a new lawsuit, arguing the CCIA legislation “replaces one unconstitutional, discretionary law with another unconstitutional, discretionary law.”

    The NYSRPA lawsuit was filed the same day Hochul and fellow democrat New York City Mayor Eric Adams said New Yorkers who were approved for pistol permits by licensing authorities will face felony charges (and prison time) under the new law simply for entering a “sensitive” area designated as a gun-free zone with a handgun, rifle or other firearm.

    It needs to be pointed out that both Kathy Hochul and Letitia James are running for reelection in November.

  • 08/31/2022 4:12 PM | Anonymous

    Kickback Kathy Punts  by Tom Reynolds

    Volumes have been written about the hastily passed anti-2nd Amendment and anti-Constitution laws passed by NY State as an emergency “Necessity”.  Since the laws were written and passed under Democrats’ extreme emotional distress, they are flawed.  Logically, the laws should be repealed and the left could start over.  But emotions and not logic run deep in Hochul’s circles, so they are ignoring their own laws. 

    One of the laws (New York Senate bill 51001) adds onerous, time consuming and expensive steps to pistol permit renewal.  On August 27th, (5 days before the law takes effect) Hochul’s NY State Police just came out with guidance that says:

    A pistol or revolver license issued by New York City or Westchester, Nassau, and Suffolk counties expires and needs to be renewed every 3 years.“

    “A pistol or revolver license issued outside of those areas does not expire, but the license holder must recertify with the New York State Police every 3 years for a concealed carry license and every 5 years for other types of licenses.”

    If you don’t renew, you lose your license.  If you don’t recertify, won’t you also lose your license?  So, the difference is…?  

    Because Hochul and her fellow Democrats came under so much fire (pun intended) they created an artificial difference between recertify and renewal.

    Gun owners are happy about this but what cannot be ignored is that Hochul is ignoring her own law to save her political behind before the election.  She can now say to anti-2A that she passed these laws and to pro-2A that she exempted them (hoping the pro 2A will ignore the rest of the law and continue to not be motivated to vote). 

    What happens after the election and this “difference without a distinction” is challenged by democrats in court?  Can we expect anti-2A Hochul and anti-2A Attorney General Letitia James to rabidly defend us? If these laws continue to stand, expect recertify to become renewal and we will all fall under the new law.

    The following is concerned with another part of that bill that Hochul is finding convenient to ignore. 

    In 2021, the NY Clay Target League reported that, in NY State, a total of 1,693 student athletes on 103 high school teams are participating on teams for trap, skeet, 5-stand and sporting clays.

    Does the bill ban these teams?  It would seem so.

    The following wording is taken directly from the law (and a link to the law is provided at the end of this Email).  Because it is so lengthy, items not related to this article are omitted. 

    “§ 265.01-e A person is guilty of criminal possession of a firearm, rifle or shotgun in a sensitive location when such person possesses a firearm, rifle or shotgun in or upon a sensitive location…Criminal possession of a firearm, rifle or shotgun in a sensitive location is a class E felony.

    For the purposes of this section, a sensitive location shall mean:

                …summer camps;

    …in or upon any building or grounds, owned or leased, of any educational institutions…school districts…public schools…private schools licensed under article one hundred one of the education law…charter schools…non-public schools…board of cooperative educational services… special act schools…preschool special education programs…private residential or non-residential schools for the education of students with disabilities…and any state-operated or state-supported schools

    …any place, conveyance, or vehicle used for public transportation or public transit…buses…or any facility used for or in connection with service in the transportation of passengers…and bus terminals;

    …any place used for…sporting events such as…stadiums.”

    After very negative feedback, the Hochul administration is using the following section to say that these teams are now legal, in spite of the wording in the law. 

    “This section shall not apply to: persons lawfully engaged in hunting activity, including hunter education training.”

    Trap shooting, etc. is now hunting, according to Hochul.  (Will you need a hunting license to shoot trap?  Wait until your hunting dog tries to recover those birds!)

    If the team should meet in a school parking lot or take a school bus to the competition, the team would seem to violate several other parts of the law Hochul has sponsored.

    If Hochul seems like a hypocrite, gun owners may react that it is hypocrisy in a good cause since it enables shooting sports to continue.  But just because we like the result, we must not overlook the fact that Hochul is violating her own law. 

    Trying to correct this mess brought on by Hochul’s false emergency, NY State Senator Pam Helming has introduced legislation (S.9530) to protect shooting sports in New York State. The bill would clarify language that does not expressly exempt competitive shooting sports events, often held at “sensitive locations.”  The bill would make clear that firearms are still permitted to be used at shooting sports venues and programs, including school-approved skeet, trap or clay target shooting teams, and organizations such as sportsmen’s clubs, youth clubs and scouting camps.

    However, Helming’s proposed law only deals with one part of a very bad law of many parts.  Don’t be distracted from the need to repeal the whole law, even if Helming is successful

    And in case you thought only NY State was this nuts; a new California law imposing civil fines on organizations that advertise any “firearms-related product” that makes firearms “appealing to minors” has caused a popular youth target shooting league to suspend operations. Faced with fines of up $25,000 for “any and each instance” of advertising firearms-related products under House Assembly Bill 2571, the California State High School Clay Target League (CASHCTL) posted on its website that it has been forced to close down.

    Bill Text: NY S51001 | 2021-2022 

  • 08/30/2022 10:38 AM | Anonymous

    Voting Facts  by Tom Reynolds

    Many people and especially gun owners believe there is little reason to vote because New York City will always win.  However, a SCOPE member, Bob Brannon, has put together the following Power Point with the following comments that shows a different story.  Its numbers are straight from the New York Board of Elections.  This presentation may surprise you.  It may also be useful in making a straight forward presentation about the need to vote in New York State.          

    Everyone should understand the gravity of what is happening in relation to the Second Amendment and the entire Bill of Rights, not only in New York, but across the country.  We can change that by voting.  There are, in fact, enough votes outside of New York City to win elections in what is considered by many to be a solid Democrat, anti-gun state.  NY is a liberal state because millions of active voters DID NOT VOTE.

    Why and how does this happen? What can we as individuals do to address this problem? What course of action can we take? There are no guarantees of success...only failure for those who do not try.  To succeed, we must stand unified and be willing to participate in something that is greater than self.

    The following comments apply to the attached power point.

    Slide one;
    These are the current numbers of registered active voters both in and outside of NY City.  Pay attention to the voters outside of NY City, just over seven and a quarter million.

    Slide two;
    These are the 2018 election cycle numbers of registered active voters both in and outside of NY City.  Again, pay attention to the voters outside of NY City, just over seven million.

    Slide three;
    This shows the shift in voters between the 2018 cycle and the 2022 cycle.  A mass exodus began out of NY city in 2020.  (Due to covid, taxes and exploding crime?)   

    Also note the rise in voters outside of NY city.  Changes are happening.

    Slide four;
    These are the votes actually cast in the 2018 gubernatorial election. A very simple question arises: “who did not vote”?  Almost three million voters (2,929,913) did not vote from upstate and Long Island. While, just over two and one half million voters (2,648,991) did not vote from New York City.  280,922 more people skipped voting outside of NY City than in NY City.

    Slide five;
    Across the entire state, Democrat ACTIVE voters outnumber Republican ACTIVE voters by a slightly greater margin of two to one. Although Republicans are outnumbered, elections are lost because almost 3 million non-NY City voters did not vote!   

    Slide 6;
    Gubernatorial map of 2018 election. A first glance would have most folks thinking that New York is a red (Republican) state.

    The ten blue counties that are outside of New York City are the most populous in the non-NY City environment. But Republican / Conservative Governor candidate Molinaro garnered over forty percent of the vote in eight of the ten blue counties and Molinaro lost the ten blue counties by 288,667 votes.  And remember just under three million upstate voters never voted.

    Slide 7;
    Cuomo did not have the New York City vote to thank for his third term...he had the nearly three million non-voters from outside of New York City to thank for that!  A fact that the media in this state has a habit of overlooking.

    Voting Facts.mp4
    (
    Run online as a video)

     Voting Facts Power Point

    Voting Facts PDF 

    Talking Points for Presentation

  • 08/29/2022 6:03 PM | Anonymous

    New Laws –Information from NY State Police

    On Friday, the NY State Police posted the answers to some Frequently Asked Questions (FAQ) about the new firearm laws for handguns and rifles.  Below is the link to that posting.  It’s worth the time to read.

    Especially note that the State Police have now created a difference between RENEWAL and RECERTIFICATION of a pistol permit.  (Who would have guessed there was a difference?)  See FAQ’s #8, #14, #15 and #16. The actual law refers to renewal of an existing license.  Was there so much negative feedback about those who already have a license, now having to recertify as if they were new license applicants, that they came up with this interesting split?  In any case, it’s good news for existing permit holders.

    https://troopers.ny.gov/

    FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS REGARDING
    RECENT CHANGES TO NEW YORK STATE FIREARM LAWS 

  • 08/27/2022 1:40 PM | Anonymous

    Pistol Permit Recertification  by Tom Reynolds

    As you should know, the new Hochul laws on recertifying your pistol permit take effect on September 1st.   (Next Thursday.)  They’ll make the process horrendously onerous, time consuming and expensive.  In addition, there is all kind of confusion about its implementation. 

    Since the law does not take effect until September 1st, several SCOPE members have tried recertifying early, to see what would happen. For example, their recertifying due date might have been December 31, 2022, which is after the September 1, 2022 effective date of the new law and thus would be subject to that law.  Instead, they tried recertifying early on August 20th.  It worked!  The recertification is good for 5 years instead of the 3 years under the new law.

    The only drawback is that the recertifying date is now August 20, 2027.  So, they lost a couple months of time but picked up five years before having the expense and time of the new law when recertifying. 

    We don’t know how far in advance one could successfully recertify.

    What we don’t know is if NY will try to strike back at people who avoided the new law when they recertified early.  That effort seems unlikely, but Kickback Kathy and her minions really hate legal guns.  (Illegal ones don’t seem to bother her as her efforts are aimed at legal ones.)

    Adding to the confusion, the permitting section of the law is being challenged in the lawsuit Antonyuk v Bruen (which is sponsored by GOA-NY and to which SCOPE has contributed financially).  A decision from the judge is anticipated next week – before September 1st.  It is hoped that the judge will stop implementation of the law.  But it’s complicated.  The judge could put a temporary stop or a permanent stop on the law and in either case NY State will appeal.  In addition, the stop might apply to the entire law or only part of it. 

    Since it won’t cost any more to recertify early and might delay the cost for five years if the law should stay in force, the only drawback is losing time on the recertification date.  Each gun owner will have to decide for themselves what that means to them.

    Propaganda About the Recent Special Elections

    The liberal propaganda mill is trying to “make hay” out of the two NY Congressional special elections held on August 23rd.  But they can’t get facts straight and, as usual, you should not believe what they say - there’s more to it. 

    Republican Joe Sempolinski won the special election in the current NY 23rd Congressional District by 53% to 47%, a 6 point victory.  But several media have painted this as a defeat for Republicans since they incorrectly say the district is rated R+12, which would mean Sempolinski underperformed expectations by 6% points.  However, Sempolinski was running in the current 23rd which is only R+4.  So, he overperformed by 2 points.  After redistricting, it’s the new 23rd that is an R+12.  Apparently, the liberal media can’t get their facts straight.  Surprise!  Surprise!

    In the NY 19th Congressional district, the Democrat Ryan won 51% to 49%, a 2 point democrat victory.  The district is rated R+2 so the Democrat flipped expectations by 4 points – on the face of it - and the liberal media is trumpeting it as a repudiation of any “Red Wave” in November. 

    The R rating comes from the average of the last two presidential elections and that is the monkey wrench in the 19th.  Trump won the district big in 2016 while Biden won small in 2020.  The average of the two elections is Republicans by 2 points because of the size of Trump’s victory in 2016.  But the district was moving left by 2018; a Democrat has held that congressional seat in the last two congressional elections and won by 12 points in 2020.  In reality, the district had moved left. A 2 point victory for the democrat – down from 12 points in the previous election - might indicate the district is swinging back Republican, especially since special elections have low turn outs that may not be reflective of all voters. 

    Does it mean much on a national basis?  Probably not.  But the left’s propaganda machine wants to “psych out” Republicans and it needs to be answered.

A 2nd Amendment Defense Organization, defending the rights of New York State gun owners to keep and bear arms!

PO Box 165
East Aurora, NY 14052

SCOPE is a 501(c)4 non-profit organization.

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