Presidential Succession by Tom Reynolds
SCOPE has written about the gun-grabbing, Democrat Party’s dilemma because some parts of their reliably Democrat constituency are buying guns in record numbers; they risk alienating some of their reliable constituency with excessive gun control. But the Democrat Party and especially Biden’s inner circle also face another potential problem of their own making; there are many who doubt that Joe Biden will be able to complete his term in office. If that is true, the Democrat Party in general and the forces behind Biden face major issues.
If Biden should step down or be removed in his first two years, it will be obvious that Democrat insiders knew, prior to the election, that he was failing and hid it from the voters. That should cause a major negative reaction amongst voters, even amongst the usual Democrat supporters. There would be legitimate questions: concerning the leader of the free world’s ability to lead; about the judgment of the man with his finger on the nuclear button; about the man tasked by the Constitution with defending it – and thus defending us – from all enemies foreign and domestic; was he incapable of doing his job; what unelected person was acting as President while pulling the strings from behind the curtain; who was really responsible for all the Executive Orders Biden signed? The legitimate uproar would be overwhelming. And it would be worse if Biden’s policies are failing at the time he steps down.
If kamala Harris did succeed to the Presidency within the first two years of Biden’s term, the Vice President’s position would need to be filled. She would nominate someone but that person must be approved by a majority of both houses of Congress. Here’s the monkey wrench in Democrat’s planning; currently, both Houses of Congress are Democrat controlled but the Senate is split exactly 50-50 with the Vice President’s vote being the deciding factor that gives Democrats their control. If there is no Vice President, the Democrats have only a tie and must seduce at least one Republican vote in order to approve a Harris nominee for Vice President. (And if one or more Democrats do not vote for the Harris’ nominee, that makes the situation more difficult.) As a side issue, while the Vice Presidency is vacant, the Democrats do not have a tie breaking vote on any proposed legislation. Oops!
This would force Harris to nominate someone very much less radical than the current President and Vice President. Joe Manchin, the Senator from West Virginia, comes to mind but that would lose Democrats their majority in the Senate, at least until a replacement election was held, and maybe after the replacement election since West Virginia tends Republican.
This leaves Democrat insiders with the option of delaying Biden’s removal until two years have passed and after an off-year election in 2022, which causes them more problems, (besides putting their own political careers above the safety and security of the nation). Historically, the President’s party loses seats in Congress during an off-year election. If Democrats should lose one seat in the Senate, they lose their majority. If Democrats lose about a half dozen seats in the House, they lose their majority. Losing one or both houses of Congress is a real possibility and must weigh heavily on Democrats’ decision making.
If kamala Harris should succeed to the Presidency after the 2022 election, she would nominate someone but, as previously stated, that person must be approved by a majority of both houses of Congress. And if one or both of those houses has a Republican majority, a nomination would certainly have to be very much less radical than the current President and Vice President. And depending on how firm the Republicans held, the person could be middle to right leaning.
But it gets worse for Democrats.
When the Vice Presidency is vacant, the next person in line is the House Speaker and next after that comes the President Pro tempore of the Senate. If either or both houses are under Republican control, they would be Republicans! If Republicans control the House, they might be very slow in approving any Harris’ nominee, in order to keep a Republican next in line. And what if the Republicans decided that impeachment payback was in order at the same time that the Vice Presidency was vacant?
And just for fun – imagine that Donald Trump runs for Congress from Florida in 2022 and is elected. Once elected, he runs for Speaker of the House in a Republican majority Congress and wins. That would put Trump next in line after the Vice President or first in line if Harris moves to the Presidency. Can you imagine…can you even begin to imagine…the left-wing media’s frenzy!
The point is – and SCOPE keeps repeating it - things can change quickly and 2A supporters should not lose hope. If Democrats pushed a Joe Biden nomination because he was the only electable Democrat in the last election, even though he was in failing health, it may have unintended consequences for them in both the short and long term. Things could get very interesting very quickly!
