SCOPE NY

Election Analysis

11/14/2022 11:30 AM | Anonymous

Election Analysis  by Tom Reynolds

As of Sunday night, in the Senate, the Republicans have 49 seats and the Democrats 50, with one Georgia election going to a runoff in December.

On Sunday night (11/14), in the House, the Republicans have 212 seats and need 6 more for a majority.

  • In 2 Arizona races Republicans lead – but just barely

  • In 1 Colorado race, Republican Boebert leads, but just barely

  • In 1 NY race, the Republican leads by 4,000 with 94% in.

  • In 1 Oregon race the Republican leads by 7,000 with 95% in.

  • In 10 California races, Republicans are ahead in 6 but it is very early in vote counting

  • In 1 Alaska race, it is going to a second round of ranked voting by adding 2nd choices to the 1st place votes.  Two Republicans have 7,000 more 1st choice votes than the Democrat but the 2nd choices are unknowable.  Heavily Republican Alaska could end up with a Democrat Congressperson

So, at best, the Senate ends in a tie with Kamala Harris breaking ties for the Democrats and Joe Manchin as a wild card on a few issues.  Kristi Sinema has been an occasional wild card but with Democrat Kelly’s win in Arizona, she will probably be less likely to be a wild card.

At best, the House ends with the Republicans holding a very small majority of only a few seats - and they could still end up in the minority.

The Red Wave didn’t happen.

                                                _____________

Stegosaurus had a brain that weighed only a few ounces; the smallest in proportion to total body weight of any animal.  It’s not much of an overstatement to say that Stegosaurus would have voted for John Fetterman in Pennsylvania’s Senatorial election.  Fetterman had a post-stroke mental impairment and, in a time when crime is spiking, Fetterman’s history and positions on crime and punishment make AO-C look conservative.  How was a Fetterman victory possible?  Why did the Red Wave disappear

According to both the Democrat and Republican Parties’ leadership, as well as the media, Donald Trump is responsible for the non-red wave in the election, since some Republican candidates he endorsed lost. Not mentioned are the Trump endorsements who won.  Also not mentioned are the number of candidates selected and funded by both parties’ leadership who also lost. 

Trump being the cause of the ‘non-red’ wave may surprise you since none of the pre-election polls and none of the exit polls named Trump’s endorsement as an issue.  Crime, inflation, abortion, immigration, etc. all were mentioned as major issues influencing voters but Trump’s endorsement was missing from that list.  Did anyone hear: “I was going to vote for the Republican candidate until Trump endorsed him/her?

Obviously, the political parties’ leadership and the media pundits better understand why the voters voted the way voters did - than the voters themselves. 

Or are the leaders covering up their ineptitude by scapegoating Trump?

We are also hearing from Republican leadership that it was the primaries that led to the non-red wave; it’s the voters’ fault for voting for the wrong candidates in the primaries.  The voters should leave it to the old-fashioned way of the party leadership making the selection in smoke filled rooms.

Obviously, the Republican leadership does not subscribe to the management theory that, “The buck stops here.”

The ‘Senate Leadership Fund’ is a Republican super PAC that was established in 2015 by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.  The group’s purpose is “to build a Republican Senate majority.” Its president served as McConnell’s chief of staff from 1991 to 1997. From 1998 to 2000, he served as executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

The Senate Leadership Fund brought in over $200 million in this election cycle.  Mitch McConnell is the primary force in where the money goes. 

The ‘Congressional Leadership Fund is the House GOP super PAC aligned with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.  In early October, it had $114 million on hand for the final weeks before the midterm elections,

It’s easy to second-guess and say McConnell and McCarthy should have put more into some losing races and less into races that the Republican won easily…because they should have.  They are the experts – self proclaimed.  In an election where the overwhelming number of issues favored Republicans, it can definitely be said that, in total, they made too many wrong decisions.

McConnell has been the Republican Senate leader for 16 years and in only 6 of them the Republicans held the majority. 

McCarthy has been House Minority Leader for 4 years.  His two predecessors were John Boehner and Paul Ryan, both of whom are widely regarded as two of the Republicans worst leaders, ever.

Will someone hand McConnell and McCarthy a sword on which they can fall!

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