SCOPE NY

Election Update as of Monday Night

11/15/2022 12:18 PM | Anonymous

Election Update as of Monday Night  by Tom Reynolds

On Monday night, in the House, Fox gives the Republicans 217 seats and CNN gives them 214. Need 218 for a majority.

The three races where CNN & Fox differ:

  • In 1 Arizona race, the Republican leads by 3,500 votes with 99% in. Fox but not CNN called it for the Republican.

  • In 1 NY race, the Republican leads by 4,000 with 98% in. Fox called it for the Republican but CNN did not.

  • In 1 Oregon race, the Republican leads by 7,500 with 99% in. Fox called it for the Republican but CNN did not.

Uncalled races that are likely Republican victories and would bring Republicans to 219 (1 more than the majority.):

In 1 California race, Republican leads by 10,000 votes with 53% in

In 1 California race, Republican leads by 13,000 votes with 65% in

Races where the Republican leads and winning both takes the total to 221:

In 1 Colorado race, Republican Boebert leads by 1,100 votes with 99% in.

In 1 California race, Republican leads by 3,000 votes with 54% in

Races where the Republican trails but is close:

In Colorado, 1 Republican trails by 1,700 votes with 99% in

In California race, 1 Republican trails by 750 votes with 78% in

In California race, 1 Republican trails by 3,000 votes with 80% in

In 1 Alaska race, it is going to a second round of ranked voting by adding 2nd choices to the 1st place votes. Two Republicans have 7,000 more 1st choice votes than the Democrat but the 2nd choices are unknowable. Heavily Republican Alaska could end up with a Democrat Congressperson

At best, the House ends with the Republicans holding a very small majority of only a few seats, ranging from 219 to 225.

217 sure plus the 2 Republicans in California that have substantial leads would bring them to a majority of 219 (1 more than they need.)

221 if they take the two seats they lead in.

222 if they take Alaska

225 if they take the 3 seats they closely trail

As of Monday night, in the Senate, the Republicans have 49 seats and the Democrats 50, with one Georgia election going to a runoff in December.

At best, the Senate ends in a tie with Kamala Harris breaking ties for the Democrats and Joe Manchin as a wild card on a few issues. Arizona’s Kristin Sinema has been an occasional wild card but with Democrat Kelly’s win in Arizona, she will probably be less likely to be a wild card.

At worst, the Democrats have 51 votes and they won’t need Manchin’s votes and will probably try to change the filibuster rule. That could come back to bite them in just two years!

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