2020 Revisited by Tom Reynolds
The following are excerpts from my Email of September, 2020. Not much has changed.
Proposed laws must be passed by both houses of the NY State legislature: the Senate and the Assembly. Over the past thirty years, the Assembly has been dominated by liberal New York City Democrats while the Senate was usually held by Republicans from Upstate and Long Island. The Senate acted as a buffer to stop most extreme liberal, anti-gun laws from being enacted. It wasn’t perfect, but it was the only NY government body that was on the side of the 2nd Amendment – most of the time. The Republican Senators played politics like a goalie; they stopped most, but not all shots, (think SAFE Act), and they never went on offense.
Prior to the 2018 election, the Republicans held the majority by 32 to 31. In November 2018’s election, Republicans decisively lost control of the Senate; Democrats defeated five Republican incumbents and won three seats where the Republican incumbent didn’t run. Later, nine other sitting Republicans announced their retirement. Over half of the Republican “goalies” from 2018 will be gone in 2021
What happened in 2018?
2016 was a presidential election year and, historically, voter turnout is much greater than two years later, in what is called an “off year election”. In NY, the governorship is on the ballot in “off year elections”. NY Senate seats are on the ballot every two years so they are contested in both presidential election years and off years.
Looking just at the total votes for all New York Senators, in 2018 there were 1,013,000 fewer ballots cast than in 2016; fewer votes are expected in an “off year election”. The Democrats cast 263,000 fewer ballots in 2018 than in 2016, while Republicans cast 713,000 fewer ballots in 2018. In four of the districts that turned from Republican to Democrat in 2018, the Democrats got more votes in 2018 than 2016.
There are three probable causes of this: First, some might see this as a reaction to President Trump, good or bad. (But he wasn’t on the ballot). Second, Republicans were uninspired by the non performing “goalies” in the Senate and registered their disgust by not voting. (Talk about self-defeating!) Third, Democrats know their votes count in NY while many Republicans believe their vote doesn’t count. Without a presidential election to bring them out, Republicans sat at home while Democrats knew they could elect a governor if they just showed up. (75% of life is just showing up. Republicans didn’t and their political influence is just barely alive in New York.)
When voting for a state senator, keep in mind that you are also voting for the most powerful person in the Senate, the Majority Leader, which may be more important than your local candidate. Your vote helps create a majority for your candidate’s party and whichever party has the majority elects a leader from its ranks. That person has broad powers over everything that happens in the Senate. The minority party has little (if any) influence.
There can be no doubt that the leadership of the New York Democratic Party is anti 2nd Amendment and the Republican Party is the only thing that can stop them - if they can regain control of the Senate in the 2020 elections and if they are finally motivated to action once in office. There is no possibility of gaining control of the Assembly.
The American Conservative Union Foundation rated NY legislators on conservative issues, which would include gun control. It puts the most radical left legislators in a class called, Coalition of the Radical Left. Nearly every member of the Democrat leadership qualified for inclusion, including the Majority Leader / Speaker and their top two deputies in each house.
Republicans must make an extra effort to turn out and vote if they want to stop NY City from steamrolling over Upstate NY. Those that are concerned about the heavily Democrat edge in NY City, should remember that in legislative races, not one vote in New York City is transferable to their district. Legislative seats are truly a local issue.
What’s the answer to all this? Just show up and vote. Ask yourself which party will protect your rights? The down ballot seats are important. These are the people who will either stop or allow anti-gun legislation to pass. These are the mayors and sheriffs that will make decisions when the “peaceful protesters” come to your neighborhood to steal, burn and pillage. These are the councilpersons who will vote on defunding your police. If you live Upstate, it’s vital to protect yourself against the tyranny of New York City's far left liberals.
Your future is in your hands.
