Something to Give Thanks For  by Tom Reynolds

On Monday, SCOPE wrote that there were various other law suits challenging Hochul’s Concealed Carry Improvement Act (CCIA).  One of them is the lawsuit between Firearms Policy Coalition and the 2nd Amendment Foundation v Nigrelli and Flynn; (the latter representing New York State). On Tuesday, gun owners got a reason to celebrate Thanksgiving.

The United States District Court Western District of New York ruled that the CCIA’s provision that, “it is a felony for a license holder to possess a firearm on all private property unless the relevant property holders actually permit such possession with a sign or by express consent” is unconstitutional.  

The judge believes the lawsuit against NY State is likely to succeed on its merits under the 2nd and 14th Amendments and granted a preliminary injunction.  He said that CCIA: “It forces individuals to give up their rights to armed self defense outside the home”.

The judge also denied New York State’s request for a 3 day delay in starting the preliminary injunction to give NYS the time to appeal, so it is immediately in effect.

District courts are the trial courts of the U.S. federal judiciary.  District courts' decisions only apply to counties in its jurisdiction.  Western District Court appeals are made to the  U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals.

The Western District includes:

Allegany, Cattaraugus, Chautauqua, Chemung, Erie, Genesee, Livingston, Monroe, Niagara, Ontario, Orleans, Schuyler, Seneca, Steuben, Wayne, Wyoming, and Yates. Major cities within its jurisdiction include Buffalo, Rochester, and Elmira.

The decision will only apply to these counties.

Undoubtably, NYS under Attorney General Letitia James will appeal.  The  U.S. Second Circuit Court of Appeals is going to be busy hearing CCIA cases!

2023 Looks Better  by Henry Kramer

Although final returns are not yet in from all districts at this writing, it is clear that the House will flip to Republican control, come the new year.  The margin may be small but there are definite consequences that should be of good cheer to second amendment protectors.

     It becomes unlikely that overbearing federal gun control legislation will make it through House committees or be passed in the next two years. However, in the “lame duck” session in this November and December, anything can happen – and it’s all bad.

    Vigilance is still required and so is voting.  If all registered gun owners in New York State had voted their interests in the midterms, Zeldin would have won the governorship and could have blocked overly strict gun control laws.  There will be another chance, in 2024, to replace second amendment hating legislators with those who believe in protecting constitutionalrights.

There is even some good news for New York residents. Although the New York legislatures remain firmly in Democrat hands, this election had to be sobering to New York Democrats.  Several House seats flipped from Democrat to Republican and Republicans came closer to winning the governor's race.

Democrats can blame their House loss on their redistricting overreach which forced a judge to rewrite the districts into something more In line with the NY Constitution. Had Democrats not been so greedy, the judge would probably have accepted a less one-sided redistricting and the Democrats might have kept a few seats, which might have saved the House for them.

Democrats should be scared.  They may need to think twice before they continue their quest to impose harsh gun control legislation on the people of New York.  But will they think twice? The possibility does exist that they will "double down" on gun control and continue to pass gun legislation that will likely not survive review in the courts and before the U.S. Supreme Court. They know it takes time and money to overturn these unconstitutional laws, through the courts.

Illegal Immigration  by Tom Reynolds

Illegal immigration should have been a big issue in the recent election. The Congressional Districts along the Mexican border (which should be the most affected) seem to tell a different story.

Congressional Districts along the Mexican border

Democrat victories (7):

• California 25

• California 52

• Arizona 7 (Large area)

• New Mexico 2 (Large area)

• Texas 16

• Texas 28

• Texas 34

Republican victories (4):

• California 48

• Arizona 6 (Tiny Area)

• Texas 23 (Large Area)

• Texas 15 (Tiny Area)

In the only Senate elections,

Democrats won in:

• California

• Arizona

In the Governors elections

Democrats won in:

• California,

• Arizona

• New Mexico

Republicans won in

• Texas

We know illegal immigration is out of control. For those of us in New York, we wonder why illegal immigration wasn’t an overriding issue in three of the four “border states”?

While we think of all four states as “border states”, there’s some interesting statistics that may demonstrate why those states have a different view of the immigration problem.

The USA / Mexico border is about 1,990 miles long. That’s a lot of mileage to cover with border security, especially when the US President isn’t interested in border security.

To give you a sense of scale:

• Texas has the longest border with Mexico, 1,254 miles.

(It’s about 1,294 miles from Albany NY to Omaha Nebraska.)

• Arizona is second with 389 miles.

(It’s about 390 miles from Erie PA to Albany NY along the NY Thruway.)

• New Mexico is third with 210 miles.

(It’s about 224 miles from Rochester NY to Albany NY along the NY Thruway.)

• California is smallest with 137 miles.

(It’s about 140 miles from Syracuse NY to Albany NY along the NY Thruway.)

Based purely on the amount of border exposure, it’s not hard to see why illegal immigration is such a big issue in Texas.

Obviously, there are other issues that affect illegal immigration, but the amount of border mileage gives us a clue as to why three border states seem less interested.

Playing Ping Pong with Gun Owners  by Tom Reynolds

On August 31^st, the GOA-NY lawsuit against NY’s Concealed Carry Improvement Act (CCIA) – Antonyuk v Hochul - was dismissed by U.S. District Court Judge Glenn Suddaby because the plaintiff lacked standing.  Presumably, this was because the plaintiff had not yet violated the law. 

At that point, the CCIA was still in effect.

GOA-NY then filed a new lawsuit that cured the lack of standing; several plaintiffs declared under oath their intention to violate the law.

On October 6^th, the same District Court Judge issued a decision on the GOA-NY lawsuit.  He ruled that the CCIA violated the 1^st, 2^nd, 5^th and 14^th Amendments and issued a Temporary Restraining Order against several (but not all) parts of CCIA. 

At that point, major parts of the CCIA were not in effect.

New York State, under Attorney General Letitia James filed a motion for a temporary pause on the Judge Suddaby’s decision while she appealed that decision.  (Of course she did, since she is working on the taxpayers’ dime.) 

On November 15^th, United States Second Circuit Court of Appeals Judges Robert Sack, Richard Wesley and Joseph Bianco granted an Interim Temporary Injunction while the legal challenge makes its way through the courts.  (This is not a decision on the case, it just lets CCIA stay in effect while the case is being appealed.)

At this moment,the entire CCIA is in back into effect.

A three-judge panel of the Second Circuit Court of Appeals should next hear the full case.

Their decision can then be appealed to be heard by the entire Second Circuit Court sitting in en banc.

Decisions of the Circuit Courts are binding on all courts in its jurisdiction.

Actually…the CCIA is not entirely back into effect.

There have been numerous other law suits filed against CCIA and in a narrower one (Hardaway v. Nigrelli) on November 3rd,  U.S. District Judge John Sinatra, Jr. granted a request to stop enforcement of CCIA’s outlawing of carrying guns in a house of worship.  According to Sinatra’s order, the Temporary Restraining Order “…shall remain in effect pending disposition of case on the merits”.

There is some confusion as to whether this ruling means anyone can carry or only designated security can carry in a house of worship.  However, the ruling would appear to allow worship centers to set their own rules on who can carry.  Thus, a pastor or rabbi could decide that any and all congregants who possess a concealed carry license can be tasked with keeping the peace during services.

On November 15th, Letitia James filed an appeal of this Temporary Restraining Order.  This appeal has not yet been heard.

As of now, the CCIA restriction on houses of worship is not in effect.

Got it?

At a time of year when many gun owners are hunting, be careful out there; you may be a felon and don’t know it.  Perhaps, by the time your trial occurs, there will be some decision and you will no longer be a felon.

Election Update as of Thursday Night  by Tom Reynolds

On Thursday night, in the House, both Fox and CNN give the Republicans 218 seats.  Therefore, they have the 218 needed for a majority.  Democrats have 210 per CNN and 212 per Fox so there are either 5 or 7 undecided races

Note: In some cases, they differ as to the % of total vote in.

Uncalled races that are likely Republican victories and would bring Republicans to 219 (1 more than the majority.):

            In California 3rd, Republican leads by 9,500 votes with 61% in

Races where the Republican leads and winning all 3 takes the total to 222:

• In Colorado 3^rd, Republican Boebert leads by 550 votes with 99% in**

• In California 22^nd, Republican leads by 3,500 votes with 78% in

• In California 13^rd, Republican leads by 800 votes with 69%-93% in

     **Automatic recount if under .50%.   Currently.16%

Races where Fox - but not CNN - called it for the Democrat

• In Colorado 8^th, Republican trails by 1,600 votes with 99% in. 

• In California 47^th, Republican trails by 8,200 votes with 96% in

In Alaska’s House race, it is going to a second round of ranked voting since no one got 50%.  Two Republicans combined have 4,000 more 1^stchoice votes than the first place Democrat.  A fourth libertarian candidate got 4,000 votes.  81% to 91% in.

Note: Under ranked voting, the 4th place candidate is eliminated and his votes are redistributed based on 2nd choice.  If still no winner, the 3rd place candidate is eliminated and his votes are redistributed based on 2nd choice. 

Heavily Republican Alaska could end up with a Democrat Congressperson.

In the Alaska Senate election, Republican Kelly Tshibaka, (who earned an endorsement from former President Donald Trump), has a narrow lead over pro-impeachment Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski. With 97% of the votes counted, Tshibaka leads by 565.  Tshibaka and Murkowski both have approximately 43 percent of the vote.  Alaska is guaranteed a Republican Senator but the question is: who?

The Senate race will also be decided by ranked choice voting.  A recent video exposed a Senator Lisa Murkowski aide claiming the ballot measure instituting ranked choice votingwas promoted by people who “wanted Lisa to get reelected.”

Even if she does not win in the first round of voting, Murkowski could see a significant bump in the second round from voters who selected Democrat candidate Pat Chesbro as their first choice.  Before the election, Murkowski allied herself with Democrat Chesbro, who in turn said she was voting for Murkowski in an effort to gain support down ballot against Tshibaka.

Throughout the race, Murkowski was aided with $9 million from the Mitch McConnell-backed super PAC. The fund backed Murkowski even as it pulled funds from New Hampshire Senate Republican challenger General Don Bolduc and Arizona Senate Republican candidate Blake Masters, both of whom ended up losing while a Republican was guaranteed a win in Alaska.

Alaska’s Division of Elections will tabulate voters’ second and third-ranked choices on November 23rd, with officials striving to certify the election’s results on November 29th.

Question of the day: Will California ever finish counting?

Election Update as of Wednesday Night  by  Tom Reynolds

On Wednesday night, in the House, both Fox and CNN give the Republicans 218 seats.  Therefore, they have the 218 needed for a majority.  Democrats have 210 per CNN and 211 per Fox so there are either 6 or 7 undecided races

Note: In some cases they differ as to the % of total vote in.

Uncalled races that are likely Republican victories and would bring Republicans to 219 (1 more than the majority.):

            In California 3rd, Republican leads by 8,900 votes with 59% in

Races where the Republican leads and winning both takes the total to 221:

• In Colorado 3^rd, Republican Boebert leads by 1,100 votes with 99% in

• In California 22^nd, Republican leads by 4,000 votes with 50%-63% in

Races where the Republican trails:

• In California 13^rd, Republican trails by 600 votes with 85% in

• In California 47^th, Republican trails by 6,900 votes with 88% in

Races where Fox - but not CNN - called it for the Democrat

• In Colorado 8^th, Republican trails by 1,700 votes with 97% to 99% in.

Election Update as of Tuesday Night  by Tom Reynolds

On Tuesday night, in the House, both Fox and CNN give the Republicans 217 seats.  Need 218 for a majority.

Note: In some cases they differ as to the % of total vote in.

Uncalled races that are likely Republican victories and would bring Republicans to 220 (2 more than the majority.):

• In California 3rd, Republican leads by 10,300 votes with 57% in

• In California 27^th, Republican leads by 13,000 with 72% in

• In California 45th, Republican leads by 14,000 with 83% in

Races where the Republican leads and winning both takes the total to 222:

• In 1 Colorado 3^rd, Republican Boebert leads by 1,100 votes with 99% in

• In California 22^nd, Republican leads by 3,300 votes with 47%-63% in

Races where the Republican trails but is close:

• In Colorado 8^th, Republican trails by 1,700 votes with 97% to 99% in.  

• In California 13^rd, Republican trails by 600 votes with 85% in

• In California 47^th, Republican trails by 3,700 votes with 84% in

In 1 Alaska race, it is going to a second round of ranked voting since no one got 50%.  Two Republicans combined have 4,000 more 1st choice votes than the Democrat.  A 4th candidate Libertarian got 4,000 votes. 

Under ranked voting, the 4th place candidate is eliminated and his votes are redistributed based on 2nd choice.  If still no winner, the 3rd place candidate is eliminated and his votes are redistributed based on 2nd choice.

Election Update as of Monday Night  by Tom Reynolds

On Monday night, in the House, Fox gives the Republicans 217 seats and CNN gives them 214. Need 218 for a majority.

The three races where CNN & Fox differ:

• In 1 Arizona race, the Republican leads by 3,500 votes with 99% in. Fox but not CNN called it for the Republican.

• In 1 NY race, the Republican leads by 4,000 with 98% in. Fox called it for the Republican but CNN did not.

• In 1 Oregon race, the Republican leads by 7,500 with 99% in. Fox called it for the Republican but CNN did not.

Uncalled races that are likely Republican victories and would bring Republicans to 219 (1 more than the majority.):

In 1 California race, Republican leads by 10,000 votes with 53% in

In 1 California race, Republican leads by 13,000 votes with 65% in

Races where the Republican leads and winning both takes the total to 221:

In 1 Colorado race, Republican Boebert leads by 1,100 votes with 99% in.

In 1 California race, Republican leads by 3,000 votes with 54% in

Races where the Republican trails but is close:

In Colorado, 1 Republican trails by 1,700 votes with 99% in

In California race, 1 Republican trails by 750 votes with 78% in

In California race, 1 Republican trails by 3,000 votes with 80% in

In 1 Alaska race, it is going to a second round of ranked voting by adding 2^nd choices to the 1^st place votes. Two Republicans have 7,000 more 1^st choice votes than the Democrat but the 2^nd choices are unknowable. Heavily Republican Alaska could end up with a Democrat Congressperson

At best, the House ends with the Republicans holding a very small majority of only a few seats, ranging from 219 to 225.

217 sure plus the 2 Republicans in California that have substantial leads would bring them to a majority of 219 (1 more than they need.)

221 if they take the two seats they lead in.

222 if they take Alaska

225 if they take the 3 seats they closely trail

As of Monday night, in the Senate, the Republicans have 49 seats and the Democrats 50, with one Georgia election going to a runoff in December.

At best, the Senate ends in a tie with Kamala Harris breaking ties for the Democrats and Joe Manchin as a wild card on a few issues. Arizona’s Kristin Sinema has been an occasional wild card but with Democrat Kelly’s win in Arizona, she will probably be less likely to be a wild card.

At worst, the Democrats have 51 votes and they won’t need Manchin’s votes and will probably try to change the filibuster rule. That could come back to bite them in just two years!

Election Analysis  by Tom Reynolds

As of Sunday night, in the Senate, the Republicans have 49 seats and the Democrats 50, with one Georgia election going to a runoff in December.

On Sunday night (11/14), in the House, the Republicans have 212 seats and need 6 more for a majority.

• In 2 Arizona races Republicans lead – but just barely

• In 1 Colorado race, Republican Boebert leads, but just barely

• In 1 NY race, the Republican leads by 4,000 with 94% in.

• In 1 Oregon race the Republican leads by 7,000 with 95% in.

• In 10 California races, Republicans are ahead in 6 but it is very early in vote counting

• In 1 Alaska race, it is going to a second round of ranked voting by adding 2nd choices to the 1st place votes.  Two Republicans have 7,000 more 1st choice votes than the Democrat but the 2nd choices are unknowable.  Heavily Republican Alaska could end up with a Democrat Congressperson

So, at best, the Senate ends in a tie with Kamala Harris breaking ties for the Democrats and Joe Manchin as a wild card on a few issues.  Kristi Sinema has been an occasional wild card but with Democrat Kelly’s win in Arizona, she will probably be less likely to be a wild card.

At best, the House ends with the Republicans holding a very small majority of only a few seats - and they could still end up in the minority.

The Red Wave didn’t happen.

                                                _____________

Stegosaurus had a brain that weighed only a few ounces; the smallest in proportion to total body weight of any animal.  It’s not much of an overstatement to say that Stegosaurus would have voted for John Fetterman in Pennsylvania’s Senatorial election.  Fetterman had a post-stroke mental impairment and, in a time when crime is spiking, Fetterman’s history and positions on crime and punishment make AO-C look conservative.  How was a Fetterman victory possible?  Why did the Red Wave disappear

According to both the Democrat and Republican Parties’ leadership, as well as the media, Donald Trump is responsible for the non-red wave in the election, since some Republican candidates he endorsed lost. Not mentioned are the Trump endorsements who won.  Also not mentioned are the number of candidates selected and funded by both parties’ leadership who also lost. 

Trump being the cause of the ‘non-red’ wave may surprise you since none of the pre-election polls and none of the exit polls named Trump’s endorsement as an issue.  Crime, inflation, abortion, immigration, etc. all were mentioned as major issues influencing voters but Trump’s endorsement was missing from that list.  Did anyone hear: “I was going to vote for the Republican candidate until Trump endorsed him/her?”

Obviously, the political parties’ leadership and the media pundits better understand why the voters voted the way voters did - than the voters themselves. 

Or are the leaders covering up their ineptitude by scapegoating Trump?

We are also hearing from Republican leadership that it was the primaries that led to the non-red wave; it’s the voters’ fault for voting for the wrong candidates in the primaries.  The voters should leave it to the old-fashioned way of the party leadership making the selection in smoke filled rooms.

Obviously, the Republican leadership does not subscribe to the management theory that, “The buck stops here.”

The ‘Senate Leadership Fund’ is a Republican super PAC that was established in 2015 by allies of Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.  The group’s purpose is “to build a Republican Senate majority.” Its president served as McConnell’s chief of staff from 1991 to 1997. From 1998 to 2000, he served as executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

The Senate Leadership Fund brought in over $200 million in this election cycle.  Mitch McConnell is the primary force in where the money goes. 

The ‘Congressional Leadership Fund’ is the House GOP super PAC aligned with Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy.  In early October, it had $114 million on hand for the final weeks before the midterm elections,

It’s easy to second-guess and say McConnell and McCarthy should have put more into some losing races and less into races that the Republican won easily…because they should have.  They are the experts – self proclaimed.  In an election where the overwhelming number of issues favored Republicans, it can definitely be said that, in total, they made too many wrong decisions.

McConnell has been the Republican Senate leader for 16 years and in only 6 of them the Republicans held the majority. 

McCarthy has been House Minority Leader for 4 years.  His two predecessors were John Boehner and Paul Ryan, both of whom are widely regarded as two of the Republicans worst leaders, ever.

Will someone hand McConnell and McCarthy a sword on which they can fall!

New York Elections  by Tom Reynolds

Because of very slow reporting in a few key states, it’s too early to comment on national elections. Expectations were artificially high and there is disappointment, but the results may yet be positive.

Here in New York State…another statewide disaster for the 2^nd Amendment but some legislative district successes.

First, Lee Zeldin needs to be thanked for his terrific run for governor. He left nothing on the field and threw a scare into the Democrat machine. We must all remember his challenge to Hochul for her to complete the sentence: New York leads the nation in outmigration because…? (Which she never answered.)

Mike Henry and Joe Pinion must also be thanked for lower visibility runs for Attorney General and U S Senator. They suffered from a lack of funding needed to get their name and message out.

Zeldin, Henry and Pinion all spoke at SCOPE meetings on several occasions.

The two most powerful 2^nd Amendment haters in New York, Governor Kathy Hochul and Attorney General Letitita James, won their elections. Expect that both will take it as a confirmation of their unconstitutional policies and they’ll continue them or even double down on them.

Hochul’s laws are being challenged in court by various groups and individuals and, for the most part, the courts’ decisions have gone well for 2A. Judges have been very direct in ruling that Hochul’s laws have been openly unconstitutional and much of her Concealed Carry Improvement Act has been put on hold by the judges. That, of course, won’t stop her, since there is no punishment for passing unconstitutional laws, except at the ballot box.

Which brings us to Letitia James, who will be defending all of Hochul’s laws. No matter how certifiably unconstitutional the laws are and how frank the judges are in their rulings, James will continue to appeal the decisions - on the taxpayer’s dime.

James also has her own political agenda, which is to use her office against political opponents such as the NRA and Donald Trump. Those will undoubtably continue.

New York has 26 Congressional seats (down from 27…New York State leads the nation in outmigration because…) They have all been redistricted. As of Thursday, Republicans won 10, Democrats won 15 and 1 (the 22^nd in central NY) is undecided. In the 22^nd, the Republican has a 4,000 vote lead with an estimated 15,000 votes uncounted. Four of the other Republican victories are flips; this is a pickup for Republicans with national significance.

The most embarrassing House loss for the Democrats is 5 term Congressman Sean Murphy’s loss in the 17^th district, since he was chair of the Democrat Congressional Campaign Committee.

Redistricting is worth mentioning. Since the Democrats control all the political levers in NY, they were confident they could redistrict Republicans out of existence in New York, no matter how unconstitutional. They simply went too far believing that NY’s judiciary, which is almost all Democrat appointees at the Appeals level, would rubber stamp it. Surprise. The Democrats’ redistricting was too much and a judge ended up redoing it, which resulted in a fairer district map. Since control of the House of Representatives may come down to one or two races, the Democrats hubris could cost them control of the House of Representatives.

The NY Assembly has 150 seats and is dominated by NY City. As of Thursday, there were 40 confirmed Republican victories and 13 races still undecided. Democrats predict they will have between 100 and 103 seats when finished; this would be a small pickup for Republicans. The Democrats will maintain their supermajority.

In the NY Senate, Democrats had 43 of 63 seats. They claim to have won 40 seats with 2 undecided. They need 42 for a supermajority.

Both legislatures need a supermajority to override a governor’s veto. With everything controlled by Democrats that is probably not a huge deal but it does give the Democrat legislature leverage when negotiating with the Democratic governor.